The elusive $15 wine

Cost driving lower sales, but vary by region

Wine producers and retailers know all too well that their sales are flagging. What was once a haymaker during the covid crisis when we were all stuck indoors, wine sales have dropped precipitously in the last year or so. Part of the reason is that baby boomers are the only generation still enjoying wine while the younger generation has turned to other beverages or refrained from alcohol all together--only 29 percent of adults now say they consume wine at least every two to three months. But one unspoken reason I rarely see cited is cost.

While retired baby boomers are sitting on more cash than any other generation, younger people are still struggling to make ends meet. Wine has become a luxury few can afford. Wine prices have risen 8 percent over the last decade, but tariffs are driving up prices more recently. Production and shipping costs have taken their toll as well.

In a recent Sovos analysis of direct-to-consumer shipping interest, there has been a 15 percent drop in year-over-year sales by volume. While this has impacted all regions and all grape varieties, the loss is most significant in California, which lost a staggering $142 million year over year. Notably, prices increased by 11 percent. The average cost of a shipped bottle of wine has risen to nearly $57.

Let me emphasize that these are bottles shipped from California to homes across the country and don’t necessarily reflect that which is sold in retail stores. In fact, the average cost of a bottle of wine sold in a store is between $10 and $15, which is absurdly low. It’s hard to find a good bottle of wine under $20 nowadays.

However, wine sales of $15 bottles dropped the most in the direct-to-consumer business. That means people who are shipping wine are generally spending more than your average consumer.

Photo by Danielle Suijkerbuijk on Unsplash

Here’s the Sovos summary of average bottle prices in 2025 in the direct-to-consumer category:

Napa County: $100

Sonoma: $38

California Central Coast: $50

California, other: $34

Oregon: $53

Washington State: $46

U.S., other: $26

Napa’s 9 percent increase reflects a region that is struggling to stay alive with inflationary cost increases and less demand. Cabernet sauvignon prices, for instance, soared 53 percent but volume dropped 26 percent. Those numbers don’t project a rosy future in the short term. By the end of this year, California winemakers will have pulled more than 40,000 acres of vines in an attempt to bring supply closer to demand.

Just speaking from personal experience, I am finding better deals outside of the United States despite tariffs. Southern Rhone Valley, Spain, Italy and South American have great wines for significantly less money. And I am seeing great values from direct-to-consumer agents who follow the negociant model—CAM X, deNegoce, and others. They sell wine in lots that come from reputable producers with the understanding that they will not divulge their origins. In the case of CAM X, the wine is often sold before it is bottled, so consumers may have to wait months to receive their orders. But prices are much less than what the producer sets. Naked Wines and Underground Cellars have different models, but they too offer low-priced wine.

Companies like Wine Spies and Last Bottle sell heavily discounted wines from major producers. The bulk market thrives when times become desperate for traditional producers.

In many cases you pay shipping costs for your orders and that alone may eliminate savings—unless shipping is free. Your best deal could be your local retailer—no shipping costs, case discounts, and frequent sales. Your local retailer can offer personal advice, find the right wine for a dinner and take back the wine if it is flawed—priceless value. And there’s no waiting around for the wine to arrive.

Savvy shoppers aren’t turning to direct shipments like they used to because the value isn’t always there. Maybe they can get a wine that otherwise is unavailable to them locally, but using the direct-to-consumer option is not about saving money.